In looking at the FINAL fantasy quarterback point totals from last season, one thing jumps out at you very quickly, there is not a great deal of separation between fantasy QBs. After Aaron Rogers, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, there is a glut of approximately 14 quarterbacks who are separated by little more than 50 total fantasy points. 50 total fantasy points during the course of a season averages out to less than 3.5 points per week.
3.5 points per week is important, but you should be able to make that up by choosing an early round elite running back or wide receiver. Before your fantasy draft, you should break down your quarterbacks into tiers, so you don’t get caught up on individual names.
As far as the Quarterback position goes, if you’re not snagging Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers in the first couple of rounds, forget about grabbing a QB. Luck and Rodgers consistently put up quality numbers and can also single-handedly win you the week matchup. These two players should be the only fantasy QBs you are considering before the 5th or 6th round.
Tier two includes signal-callers who may not be as consistent but are more than capable fantasy starters on a weekly basis. Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning are tier two options. These quarterbacks will typically come off the board rounds 4 – 7. Instead of settling for middle of the pack quarterbacks, fortify the roster with more running backs and wide receivers.
If you didn’t select either of the two quarterbacks in tier one, tier three is the time to make a fantasy QB pick. Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton reside in tier three. Less consistent than tier two but have a higher ceiling to return on their average draft position. These quarterbacks will be available in rounds 8 -10. By that time, a good chunk of the roster will be filled with solid starters.
Mr. Brady has not been forgotten. Tom Brady’s resume will claim that he is a borderline tier one quarterback. Currently, Brady’s ADP is 71 and most likely to keep rising pending the federal court hearing decision about deflategate.
Tier one or Tier three is the optimal time to choose your signal-caller. Fantasy is all about minimizing risk and maximizing reward and these two tiers is where all the reward lies.