Football fans got exactly what they asked for as Peyton Manning and the Broncos take on Tom Brady and the Patriots for a spot in the Super Bowl.
It’s no surprise the Broncos have made it this far with all the weapons they have on offense, but few expected the Patriots to get within a game of the Super Bowl after losing Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker during the off-season.
Most football experts will agree that on paper that Denver should win by at least two touchdowns. Denver is playing at home, the weather is expected to be 50+ degrees, the Broncos had statistically the best offensive season in NFL history and Peyton Manning had the best statistical season for a quarterback in NFL history. The Broncos bring to the table five players who have scored 10 or more touchdowns this season while the Patriots have no vertical passing game and have surprisingly morphed into a power running team.
It seems hard to imagine how the Patriots can keep up with the Broncos but Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have a history of finding a way to give Peyton Manning and his high power offenses fits and no one will be surprised if the Patriots find a way to win and advance to their sixth Super Bowl appearance in the Brady and Belichick era.
It should be a great AFC championship game, but which team has the edge?
What happened in Week 12 when the Patriots came back from a 24 point deficit to win in overtime doesn’t hold much water when analyzing this game. Both teams had three turnovers, it was extremely windy, and both teams have lost significant players since the Week 12 match-up. There will be no Rob Gronkowski to control the middle of the field and there will be no Von Miller to rush the passer and no Chris Harris to guard the slot receivers.
This game will come down to whether or not the Broncos can convert red zone trips into touchdowns and whether or not the Patriots can run the ball successfully and move the chains on third down. Like most games in the NFL, this game will be won or lost in the trenches.
Let’s take a look at both sides of the ball and break down which team has the advantage in this game.
Broncos Offense against Patriots Defense
Belichick and the Patriots will do everything in their power to not get beaten through the air and will likely play with only six players in the box and two deep safeties at all times. The Broncos should be able to run the ball which will shorten the game and play into the Patriots. The Pats will bet the house on their ability to make key stops in the red zone.
The Patriots defense will have a perfect game plan to stop the Broncos offense, but do they have the players to execute this game plan? I think not, advantage Broncos Offense.
Broncos Defense against Patriots Offense
The Patriots will need to run the ball extremely well to win this game. They have been running the ball very well in recent weeks and should have enough success to keep them in this game. The Pats will try to establish the run early and get their play-action passing game going in “obvious” run situations. The Patriots have had a lot of success completing short passes and turning them into big plays so whether or not the Broncos can make open field tackles will be a big factor in this game.
Look for the Patriots to use their short passing game to open up the run early. The Broncos do have the seventh ranked rushing defense but they haven’t been tested on the ground much this season since their opponents have been playing from behind most of the year. The Patriots should have success on the ground and Shane Vereen should be able to move the chains catching passes out of the backfield on third downs.
Does a Tom Brady powered offense have an advantage over Denver’s 19th ranked defense? I think so, advantage Patriots Offense.
Many look at this game as Manning against Brady, but I believe this game will be won by which team is more physical upfront. The more physical team will likely create the most pressure on the opposing quarterback which will likely lead to a game-changing turnover. The quarterback that will have the best game will be the one with the least amount pressuring from the opposing pass rush.
I see this being a great game with multiple lead changes but I don’t see the Patriots having enough firepower on offense to keep up with a Broncos squad that is playing at home and on a mission to get to a Super Bowl after their disappointing early exit in the playoffs last season. Brady is 2 – 1 against Manning in the playoffs but the home team has won each time in those meetings.
I see the Broncos winning at home in a four point game and kneeling on the ball to run out the clock. The Broncos expected to be at this point before the season started and the Patriots are just happy to have gotten this far given what they have had to overcome to get here.