While it’s very important to know what players are sleepers, starters and busts, it’s might be even more critical to know which players are over-hyped or overvalued.
The quarterback position is the easiest to analyze and criticize which leads to many people over hyping players at the position. However, it can be much more difficult to pick which running backs and wide receivers are overvalued since they are not touching the ball on every play like a quarterback.
Knowing who is overvalued will let you sit back in your draft room and watch your friends, colleagues, and siblings pick their way to a tragedy this season.
Tavon Austin– The St. Louis Rams used the eighth overall pick in the 2013 draft to take West Virginia’s Tavon Austin. When Danny Amendola left for the Patriots, many thought that Austin would immediately come in and be quarterback Sam Bradford’s favorite target.
However, the Rams also have a solid up and coming receiver in Chris Givens and a more than capable receiving tight end in Jared Cook. While Austin has the explosiveness to one day be a very good receiver, he has been working in the punt return a lot this off season and will likely see an equal amount of targets as Givens and Cook.
Stevie Johnson– After coming off his third consecutive year of 1,000 yards or more receiving, many would expect Stevie Johnson to continue his strong performance this season. However, with the quarterback situation in Buffalo being a major weak spot, Johnson will struggle to get the ball.
Furthermore the Bills have come out and said that they plan on running the ball until running back C.J. Spiller “throws up.” Johnson is a talented receiver, however due to the questions at quarterback and an explosive running back, he will have a hard time putting up numbers like he has in the past three seasons.
Arian Foster– Yes, Arian Foster, running back for the Houston Texans, is an overvalued player this season. He has been one of, if not the most, explosive running backs in the league the past three years, not rushing for less than 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns in any of those years. Many have him ranked as the second best running back this season behind Adrian Peterson.
However this past offseason has not treated him well and has raised concern over his long term health. What started as a calf injury grew into a lower back injury, forcing Foster to only recently begin practicing with Texans. Coach Gary Kubiak has said that Foster will not see his usual share of carries in week 1 to help keep him healthy.
Many pundits have said that he has been overworked in past seasons and his body is beginning to fail him. The Texans will likely give running back Ben Tate more carries this season to help preserve the ailing Foster.
It is important to keep an eye on Austin, Johnson, and Foster, as they all do carry a good fantasy value. However, be very careful as to not draft them too early. Foster will go in the first round, however if you have a top 3 pick be very wary of his injury concerns this season.