When it comes to drafting a quarterback for the 2013 Fantasy Draft, all fantasy owners must basically focus on the top twenty in the league (except in 2 quarterback formats.)
To help with your draft this season, Fantasy Buzzer did a quick breakdown of the talent available.
The following top twenty players can be broken down into (FOUR) categories:
- Must Own
- Top Notch
- Solid Starters
- Best of the Rest
Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees
FORGET the fact that Aaron Rodgers has an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 12 and Drew Brees has an ADP of 14 – They need to be the first players off the board for the shrewd fantasy football owners.
If you are one of the lucky people that have one of the top two picks in your draft, my advice to you is to pick one of the top two quarterbacks. The bottom line is, if you have Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees on your squad, you have a much better chance of making the playoffs. There’s no debate when it comes down to actual points.
I won’t bore you with their stats – you know that these guys put the points up every week and you can trust them implicitly.
Last year Adrian Peterson scored more points than any other running back. He also finished 11th in total points scored behind ten quarterbacks.
The year before, Ray Rice scored more points than any other running back. He finished 10th in total points scored behind nine quarterbacks.
Are you starting to see a pattern here?
Here are the raw fantasy numbers from 2012:
#1 – Brees scored 423 fantasy points
#2 – Rodgers scored 407
#11 – Adrian Peterson scored 297
Don’t waste your time with a running back if you have one of the top two picks in the draft – either one of these fantasy studs will likely outscore ANY running back by an average of 100 POINTS! If you don’t think 100 points makes a difference in fantasy football, go play hopscotch, this game isn’t for you.
The big two give you too many points week in and week out to ever be passed up. If you have the 7th or 8th pick and they are still on the board, pull the trigger and look like a genius.
Please keep in mind – Once Rodgers and Brees are gone
Time to draft your running back!!
Top Notch Quarterbacks:
Draft a running back first before picking up any of these quarterbacks!
Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick
To actually win the league, you will need to draft a top-notch running back before one of these four quarterbacks, but make sure you snag one of these QBs by the third round.
Let’s start with Peyton Manning – I went back and forth on whether or not he was a MUST OWN because his ADP is 24. Bottom line, if you see Manning in the second round, pounce on him – He’s a cut above the rest and with Wes Welker, he will be better than he was last year.
While Manning will embrace the arrival of Welker, Tom Brady will miss him on almost every passing down to start the season. The tight end and wide receiver situation in New England is a well-publicized mess and Danny Amendola is NO Wes Welker. Amendola is injury prone and has played 16 games just once in his career. Welker is an iron man who has a history of getting the job done.
Even though the soon to be 36-year-old quarterback is likely to start the season without his top five receivers from last season, Brady is still Brady – and he will throw and complete passes to the kicker or the waterboy if he has to. His ADP is 38, but I would still take him before Cam Newton, who’s ADP is 36.
Matt Ryan was a stud last year. There’s no reason he shouldn’t replicate his numbers from last year, which included 4,719 passing yards and 32 touchdowns. His ADP is right where it should be at 43.
Colin Kaepernick is kind of the Hot Stuff X-Factor. He will set the world on fire or he might fizzle out. I think there’s a slight risk, but if you haven’t grabbed one of the other quarterbacks, he’s your best bet. His ADP is 51 and if it came down to Kaepernick or Matt Stafford – I would lean toward the 49ers quarterback.
Solid to Spectacular Quarterbacks
Robert Griffin III, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, Eli Manning
As long as he’s healthy, Robert Griffin III is one of the top ten options for fantasy quarterbacks. However, he’s a risk taker and is riddled with serious health issues that people have magically forgotten about. He’s now had reconstructive surgery on the same knee twice and he has concussion issues. That’s a little too much risk for me, but it’s your team.
Matthew Stafford is an interesting pick. Stafford just missed breaking the 5,000 yard passing mark for the second year in a row during the 2012 season with 4,967 yards. But after throwing for 41 touchdowns during the 2011 season, he threw just 20 last year. His current ADP is 61 and he should bounce back with more touchdowns during the 2013 season.
The expectations are sky high for Cam Newton, but I would temper those. He plays for a bad Panthers team that has done nothing during the offseason to beef up Newton’s supporting cast. He’s a one-man show with no running game and a cast of subpar receivers. He could very well turn out to be the same fantasy bust that he was during the first half of the 2012 season.
Andrew Luck is the one quarterback who can really make his mark this season and really has nothing but upside. He’s the 10th rated quarterback with an ADP of #64 and if he can build on his success from last season, he could be one of the great ones.
Tony Romo is Tony Romo – he will have great highs and terrible lows – and he will likely fold when it matters most.
Pretty much the same line goes for Eli Manning – 4 touchdown performances will be followed by 0 touchdown performances. No matter who the Giants play, you never know which Eli you will show up from week to week.
Best of the Rest
Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers
Andrew Dalton is the best of this bunch and is rated as 14th-best quarterback in fantasy leagues. His ADP is 107 which means you can grab him as late as the 10th round in many drafts.
Ben Roethlisberger has been beaten up like no other quarterback, but he’s a tough guy and can still produce.
As far as fantasy production and performance goes, very little separates quarterbacks Joe Flacco from Jay Cutler. They both have the potential to put up big numbers one week and then crash and burn for the next three weeks in a row.
Phillip Rivers just barely makes the “best of the rest” category. Coming into his 10th year in the league, his skills are on the serious decline. His yardage has dropped three years in row and so have his touchdowns. Still, he might make decent backup if you are in dire straights.
Leave them on the board
Michael Vick and Josh Freeeman
Traditional wisdom says that the top twenty quarterbacks in the league are all worth drafting. So much for traditional wisdom. Leave Vick and Freeman on the board and let them be someone else’s headache.